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The numbers game

By Keith Osborne

“Homes fall £100k in a fortnight” screamed a front-page headline this week, albeit only in that bastion of journalistic excellence, London Lite. This was its reaction to a Globrix survey of London house prices which found that in some of the capital’s boroughs, some sellers had been dropping the asking price of their homes considerably in the past couple of weeks to get a quick sale before Christmas.

The largest reductions appear to be in the districts with the highest prices. More detailed scrutiny of the figures (unavailable on Globrix.com, strangely) suggests rather less dramatic falls in many other areas, though clearly that’s not front page material. I’m sure the headline writer’s lot is not an easy one, but in terms of conveying the gist of the story concisely and truthfully, this one might be filed alongside “Freddie Starr ate my hamster”.

The hysterical hyperbole of this particular headline illustrates how numbers and statistics are frequently bandied around in the property industry (at least as much overseas as at home) with scant concern for their provenance and accuracy. The Globrix survey numbers published in the paper were only absolutes, with no indication of percentages or sample sizes.£100k off a million-pound home is rather less newsworthy than the same amount off a £300k home.

Interpretation is fine but surely not at the expense of accuracy? Often, there is actually no accurate figure to be had – estimates on current British ownership of overseas homes, as well as those looking for a home abroad for example, are just that – estimates. And somewhere in the range of 200,000 to 4 million, depending on who you believe, which leaves plenty of room for manoeuvre. Most claims about property price rises (or falls) can also be taken with a pinch of salt as there is little or no documentary evidence to back them up, and while an opinion can be perfectly valid, it’s not the same as a fact.

But these numbers have a habit of popping up time and again as if they were gospel, and in time they seem to become the “truth” through sheer repetition. How many people are convinced by them is another matter, though. In these troubled time, we need to collectively up our game to convince buyers and overcome their scepticism. A little integrity would go a long way. Call me a cynical old thing if you like, but I take most property-related statistics with a pinch of salt, and I’m certain that many industry professionals and punters do the same.

Which is a shame, because there are sure to be some real nuggets amongst the dross that could benefit all of us if we could recognise them among the half-truths and hype. And if I’ve asked it once, I’ve asked it a million times – don’t exaggerate.

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