Here is an edited version of the key information from the RICS Housing Market Survey, released this week. If you would prefer to download the PDF file containing the full report, you can do so by clicking the link below. The full report contains additional material, such as commentary from a large number of surveyors throughout the regions, tables, diagrams and other statistical information for the national and local housing markets.

Download the RICS Housing Survey
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Following the post-September 11th slowdown, house price inflation eased further in October, down to the lowest pace since January. However, there was still a balance of surveyors reporting an overall increase in prices, with 24% more reporting a rise in prices than a fall, down from a revised 39% in September. Furthermore, the pace of increase is still slightly above the long-run average of 23% recorded since January 1978.

Despite the lull in the markets that followed in the weeks after the terrorist attacks on New York, the busy summer meant that completed house sales for the three months to October rose once again. At 36 properties per surveyor, this was the highest level for this period of the year since mid 1993, though the slowdown in the number of agreed sales means that this record is unlikely to be maintained next quarter.

Stocks of residential property on surveyors' books slipped back to 73 in October having risen to a 12-month high of 75 in September. Rising sales have depleted stock levels, despite a tentative rise in the number of new instructions over the past three months.

A traditional slowdown in the Christmas and New Year period is expected to lead to sales activity dropping off. In October, 61% more surveyors expect sales to fall than rise in the next three months, though the deterioration in confidence from the September survey was not as bad as might have been expected. Nonetheless, surveyor expectations for prices remained negative looking ahead to the next three-month period. In October, 24% more surveyors expected prices to fall than rise, but again the drop off in expectations from September was fairly limited. Adjusted for seasonal influences, surveyors expect prices to edge higher in the next three months, with confidence unchanged from September. Falling interest rates and low availability of property has helped to support sentiment despite concerns over the economy.

The North
House price growth steadied in October, after a marked slowdown in the previous month. After seasonal adjustment the balance of respondents reporting price rises over those reporting a fall was 32%, unchanged from September. Sales have picked up over the last three months, though new enquiries have eased, suggesting growth in market activity has peaked. New instructions are falling at a slower rate than earlier in the year, helping to check price inflation. Despite this, price expectations are still firmly positive, though surveyors expect a moderate fall in sales over the next three months.

North Yorkshire & Humberside
House price inflation was largely unchanged on the month, but the data points to a slowdown since the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted, a balance of 47% of surveyors reported higher prices in the three months to October from 49% in September. Growth in agreed sales picked up again though new enquiries decelerated further, continuing the slowdown from June. New instructions have risen marginally after falling in the three months to August. Surveyors have become slightly more pessimistic over sales for the next three months, but prices are seen rising at a firm pace.

North West
House price rises showed a marked cooling in the three months to October. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% of respondents reported higher prices from 47% in September. Sales activity remains subdued, though steady growth in enquiries continues. New instructions maintained the falls seen in previous months, with expectations for sales becoming neutral. Falling availability of houses on the market is expected to limit growth in sales activity, but further modest price rises are envisaged.

East Midlands
A further slip in house price inflation was noted in October. Seasonally adjusted, a balance of 37% of respondents reported rising house prices in the three months to October from 46% in September. Growth in agreed sales, however posted its strongest rise for the year. Growth in enquiries remains firmly positive though has weakened since the summer. As a result, sales activity is expected to cool further in the next three months. Surveyor price expectations have also moderated as new instructions have risen.

West Midlands
House price inflation showed a measured dip in the three months to October. A net 41% of respondents reported an increase in house prices from 49% in September, though price growth remains well up on that reported at the beginning of the year. Sales growth steadied after slowing in September. Growth in enquiries eased though are still rising in contrast to persistent falls earlier in the year. The outlook for sales remains subdued after taking a knock in September. Price expectations have also failed to recover from a similar drop though a standstill in new instructions will help to support prices in the near term.

East Anglia
The region remains one of the strongest in terms of house price inflation, though price growth slowed further in October to a pace similar to that at the start of the year. Adjusted for seasonal influences, a net 45% of surveyors reported a rise in prices, down from a peak of 75% in August. Agreed house sales were weaker, and are likely to slow further given less interest reported from buyers. However, new instructions have also slowed which should see prices continue rising to the end of the year, albeit at a slower rate.

South East
House price inflation in the region slowed again in the three months to October, though prices still showed a modest rise. Adjusted for seasonal trends, the balance of surveyors reporting price rises, above those reporting price falls was 16% in October, down from 56% in July. The slowdown in the market has been caused by lack of interest from buyers over the past two months, while instructions have trended higher. Growth in agreed sales slowed, and is likely to be close to zero to the year end, with surveyors expecting a stabilisation in price rises at a subdued pace.

South West
Adjusted for seasonal influences, house prices were at a standstill in October, with surveyors reporting a marked change in price trends since September. A balance of 1% more surveyors reported price falls than price rises for the three months to October. The slowdown follows weaker enquiries since July, while new instructions showed a slight pick-up. Growth in agreed sales also slowed, to a pace similar to that in the Spring, and is expected to ease further over coming months. Though confidence in the market has slipped, surveyors still anticipate small price rises to the year-end.

London
Chartered surveyors reported that house prices fell in the three months to October, the first drop in prices since August 2000. Taking into account seasonal influences, a net 32% of surveyors reported lower prices, following firm rises since April. New buyer enquiries dipped in October, while agreed sales showed only a small rise. Meanwhile new instructions have been weak since March, and have helped to provide some support for prices. Surveyors expect sales to slow in the run-up to Christmas, and prices to show only small rises, if any.

Wales
Adjusted for seasonal influences, house price inflation in Wales maintained a firm pace in the three months to October. A net 40% of surveyors reported price rises, with agreed sales also up. Buyer enquiries showed another steady increase, while new instructions posted a small drop, continuing the weak trend evident in the second half of the year. Confidence remains good, with surveyors expecting a slight acceleration in house price inflation to the year-end, together with rising sales volumes.

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