UK house prices up £12,000

UK house prices have risen £12,000 in the last year, the latest official house price index reveals.

New data from the Office for National Statistics shows that average house prices in the UK have increased by 5.8 per cent in the year to February 2017 (up from 5.3 per cent in the year to January 2017). However, this still remains below the average annual house price growth seen in 2016 of 7.3 per cent.

The average UK house price was £218,000 in February 2017 – £12,000 higher than a year ago and £2,000 higher than last month.

The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 6.3 per cent over the year to February 2017, with the average price in England now £234,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 1.8 per cent over the last 12 months to stand at £145,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 3.1 per cent over the year to stand at £139,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £125,000, an increase of 5.7 per cent over the last 12 months.

On a regional basis, London continues to be the region with the highest average house price at £475,000, followed by the South East and the East of England, which stand at £312,000 and £282,000 respectively. The lowest average price continues to be in the North East at £124,000.

The East of England is the region which showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 10.3 per cent in the year to February 2017. Growth in the East Midlands was second highest at 7.5 per cent, followed by the West Midlands at 7 per cent. The lowest annual growth was in the North East, where prices increased by 2.2 per cent over the year.

 

UK house prices continue growth as Brexit looms

24th April 2017

UK house prices continue to grow at the start of 2017, as the confirmed date for Brexit looms.

Average house prices in the UK increased by 6.2 per cent in the year to January, according to the UK’s official house price index, continuing the strong growth seen since the end of 2013.

The average UK house price was £218,000 in January. This is £13,000 higher than in January 2016 and £1,000 higher than December 2016.

However, this still remains below the average annual house price growth seen in 2016 of 7.4 per cent. Indeed, the house price index revised downwards its initial figures for end of 2016, with prices rising 5.7 per cent year-on-year, lower than the originally reported 6.7 per cent.

The downward revisions could point to a less buoyant housing market than first thought, as the UK prepares to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.

Commenting on the UK House Price Index, Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC, says: “While 6 per cent growth remains healthy, the significant downward revision to both the November and December figures portray a less buoyant market than previously thought. With the triggering of Article 50 now confirmed for March 29, we may be beginning to see the signs of the Brexit related slowdown that we anticipated last year.

“We expect house price growth for 2017 to be between 2 per cent and 5 per cent, which means a further slowing of prices over the next 12 months.”

The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 6.5 per cent over the year to January 2017, with the average price in England now £235,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 4.2 per cent over the last 12 months to stand at £146,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 4 per cent over the year to stand at £142,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £125,000, an increase of 5.7 per cent over the last 12 months.

On a regional basis, London continues to be the region with the highest average house price at £491,000, followed by the South East and the East of England, which stand at £319,000 and £279,000 respectively. The lowest average price continues to be in the North East at £124,000.

The East of England, meanhwile, was the region with highest annual growth, as prices increased 9.4 per cent. Growth in the South East was second highest at 8.7 per cent, followed by London at 7.3 per cent. The lowest annual growth was in the North East, where prices increased by 2.2 per cent over the year.

 

Strong house price growth shows UK’s stoic resilience

19th January 2017

Strong house price growth in the UK continues to show the market’s “stoic resilience”, say property professionals.

Average proeprty prices in the country increased by 6.7 per cent year-on-year in November 2016 (higher than the 6.4 per cent in the year to October), according to the official house price index from the Office for National Statistics. This continues the strong growth recorded by the ONS since the end of 2013.

“If ever there was an illustration of the property market’s stoic resilience, this is it. The ONS’ official data shows that by November 2016, prices were growing at almost exactly the same rate as they were a year before,” says Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders.

“After dusting itself off from the Brexit shock, the market recovered steadily at the tail end of 2016 as would-be buyers who had held off in the referendum’s immediate aftermath returned to the fold. That initial procrastination has now been replaced by cautious optimism in many parts of the UK,” he adds.

The main contribution to the increase in UK house prices came from England, where house prices increased by 7.2 per cent over the year to November 2016, with the average price in England now £234,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 4.1 per cent over the last 12 months to stand at £147,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 3.3 per cent over the year to stand at £143,000. The average price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £124,000.

The East of England is the region which showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 10.5 per cent in the year to November 2016. Growth in the South East was second highest at 8.6 per cent, followed by London at 8.1 per cent. The lowest annual growth was in the North East, where prices increased by 3.2 per cent over the year.

On a regional basis, London continues to be the region with the highest average house price at £482,000, followed by the South East and the East of England, which stand at £313,000 and £278,000 respectively. The lowest average price continues to be in the North East at £127,000.

 

UK house prices stay flat

13th December 2016

UK house prices stayed flat in October 2016, as growth continues to slow.

The latest official ONS House Price Index shows that values were unchanged in October from the previous month, although they grew £14,000 year-on-year. The average house price now stands at £217,000.

England fuelled the annual growth, with a rise of 7.4 per cent to £233,000, while Wales saw prices jump 4.4 per cent to £147,000. Scotland followed, with prices up 4 per cent to £143,000, ahead of Northern Ireland (£124,000).

The East of England is now the region with the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 12.3 per cent in the year to October 2016. London was behind both the East and the South East (9.1 per cent), with growth of 7.7 per cent. Indeed, the lowest annual growth by local authority was recorded in the City of London, where prices fell by 8.8 per cent to £713,000.

Agents, though, dismiss talk of the London bubble bursting.

“Values in the capital have taken something of a pause for breath, but are still comfortably higher than they were a year ago,” comments David Brown, CEO of Marsh & Parsons. “It’s important to appreciate this context sometimes – London house prices have long been on such an inexorable rise that any minor correction is sometimes overanalysed and pronounced as early signs of a bubble bursting when the reality is more a mountain climber acclimatising on his way to the summit. There is always a seasonal slowdown in all parts of the country as we head towards Christmas, but London never loses any of its long-term lustre.”
 

Strong fundamentals keep UK housing market robust

15th November 2016

The strong fundamentals of UK real estate are keeping the housing market robust, despite a turbulent year.

The latest official house price index from the Office of National Statistics shows that average house prices in the UK have increased by 7.7 per cent in the year to September 2016 (unchanged from the previous month), continuing the long-term growth seen since the end of 2013.

The average UK house price was £218,000 in September 2016. While this stayed flat on a monthly basis, it marks a £16,000 climb from September 2015.

The main driver was England, where house prices increased by 8.3 per cent over the year to September 2016, with the average price in England now £234,000. Wales saw house prices increase by 4.4 per cent over the last 12 months to stand at £146,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 3.4 per cent to stand at £143,000. The average price in Northern Ireland increased by 5.4 per cent to £124,000.

“Sustained growth in house prices shows that the market continues to shake off political and macroeconomic uncertainty,” says Doug Crawford, CEO of My Home Move. “Despite the market having to weather several turbulent spells this year, such as changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) and the Brexit vote, prices have continued to grow faster than they did in 2015. For example, this September’s annual increase of 7.7 per cent is greater than September 2015’s 5.3 per cent.

“This continued growth is a testament to the robustness of the housing market and the strong fundamentals that underpin it. Demand for housing continues to outpace supply, which supports price rises. Furthermore, low returns on other traditional savings avenues means that bricks & mortar is seen as a good destination for investment.”

 

UK house prices continue to grow post-Brexit

13th September 2016

House prices in the UK continue to grow following the EU referendum.

House prices in the UK continue to grow following the EU referendum. The latest official index from the Office for National Statistics shows that the average house price in the UK rose 8.3 per cent in the year to July 2016, although this is down from the 9.7 per cent recorded in June 2016.

Nonetheless, the trend continues the strong growth seen since the end of 2013, with the average price rising £17,000 in the last year to £217,000.

On a regional basis, London continues to be the region with the highest average house price, at £485,000, followed by the South East and the East of England, which stand at £313,000 and £274,000 respectively.

The East of England is the region which showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 13.2 per cent in the year to July 2016. Growth in London remains high at 12.3 per cent, followed by the South East with an 11.9 per cent annual growth. The lowest annual growth was in the Yorkshire and The Humber, where prices increased by 4.7 per cent over the year.

The figures follow a report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which found that UK housing activity rebounded following the Brexit vote, after a brief bout of uncertainty and stalled activity.

Andrew Bridges, Managing Director of Stirling Ackroyd, comments: “London’s house prices jumped by 1% in July, defying Brexit uncertainty in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. With the typical home in the Capital worth double the UK average, London continues to dominate the market, but for an aspiring first-time buyer, being able to purchase a home in London is becoming an almost impossible challenge. House prices in Newham have increased by more than 20% in the last year. Those working in the Capital are now looking to the East and South East of England for more affordable homes, which is why these areas are also seeing double digit growth.”

 

Housing market stayed strong pre-Brexit

16th August 2016

The housing market stayed strong before the UK’s Brexit vote, according to the latest official figures.

The UK House Price Index, produced jointly by the ONS, Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, shows that house prices jumped 8.7 per cent in the year to June 2016, faster than 8.5 per cent in the year to May 2016. The average price of a property in the UK was £213,927.

“Continuing price pressures in the housing market reflect stronger demand relative to supply in the housing market. However, there are also indications that the housing market pressure softened recently, with falls in both demand and supply,” comments the index.

England is leading the annual growth in the UK, with prices up 9.3 per cent to an average of £229,383. On a monthly basis, though, Scotland was the strongest performer, with prices up 2.7 per cent to £143,282, ahead of Northern Ireland (3.8 per cent to £123,241) and Wales (up 1.2 per cent to £145,238).

While the market was still going strong, though, Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC, predicts that a future slowdown is likely.

“These figures only capture one week of market activity after the vote to leave the EU on 23 June, so it is too early to draw any firm conclusions from this set of data,” he says.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the vote to leave the EU will have a significant impact on the housing market. In our main scenario, average UK house price growth will decelerate to around 3 per cent this year.”

The monthly price change for a property in the UK was 1 per cent in June 2016.

Other indices have also indicated that price growth has slowed down since the Brexit vote, although there have been other factors impacting upon the market, with a lot of transactions brought forward to the start of 2016 to beat the deadline for the new stamp duty surcharge.

 

Brexit: UK house prices to slow but not crash

20th July 2016

UK house price growth is forecast to slow down post-Brexit, but despite some dramatic media headlines, the market is not expected to crash.

Analysts at French bank Société Générale have written in a note to clients that London’s prime property prices could fall by more than 30 per cent in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to exit the European Union, as employees in the financial sector sell up their homes and relocate to Europe.

Real estate analyst Marc Mozzi wrote that the bank fears London residential property prices could see an “even more severe downturn” than 30 per cent, following a “classic housing bubble”, for which Brexit is the trigger

“Given the current ratio of prices to incomes in London, a price correction of even 40-50% in the most expensive London boroughs does not seem impossible” said Mozzi.

“Last month, the average London house price was £472,000 – 12 times average London earnings, compared with a long-term average of six times”

Mozzi cited a study by PwC carried out before the referendum, which forecast that between 70,000 and 100,000 fewer people would be employed in the financial sector post-Brexit.

However, PwC’s own, more recent report is far brighter about the UK’s prospects in the wake of the Brexit vote. PwC anticipates a “marked slowdown in house price growth, but no major crash”.

In PwC’s main scenario, UK house price growth is not expected to fall, but the rate of growth is expected to decelerate to around 3 per cent in 2016 and around 1 per cent in 2017. After this initial dip, however, projected house price growth picks up again to around 4 per cent in 2018 and an average of around 5 to 6 per cent per annum in the longer term, as persistent supply shortages keep house prices rising faster on average than earnings.

PwC estimates that average UK house prices in 2018 could be 8 per cent lower than if the UK had voted to stay in the EU (although this would still leave them 8 per cent higher on average than in 2015). The estimated impact of Brexit varies by region: average house prices in London could be around £60,000 lower due to Brexit than they would otherwise have been by 2018, in contrast to a reduction of £10,000 in Scotland and just £8,000 in the North East. Nonetheless, none of the regions would see a plummet in prices and there would be no crash.

Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC, comments: “We think there are four main reasons why the Brexit vote will lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the short term: the deterrence of foreign investment, uncertainty regarding the future of EU nationals living in the UK, a reduction in consumer confidence and turbulence in the banking sector. While these factors will weigh heavily on the market in the short term, we expect a gradual recovery from 2018 onwards as market fundamentals reassert themselves.”

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