Irish house prices may see double-digit growth in 2017, boosted by the country’s newly-introduced Help to Buy scheme.
House prices have enjoyed strong growth in recent years, as the country’s market rebounds from the global financial crisis. In the year to October 2016, according to the Central Statistics Office, prices jumped 7.1 per cent across the country, slightly below the 7.6 per cent annual growth recorded in September 2016 but much higher than the 4.4 per cent annual growth recorded in October 2015.
In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 5.5 per cent in the year to October. Dublin house prices increased 6.1 per cent, while Dublin apartments increased 4.1 per cent in the same period. In contrast, the lowest growth was in Fingal, with house prices rising 3.4 per cent.
Residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) were 10.2 per cent higher in the year to October. The Midland region showed the greatest price growth, with house prices increasing 16.6 per cent. Conversely, the Mid-East region showed the least price growth, with house prices increasing 6.1 per cent.
From the trough in early 2013, prices nationally have increased by 48.4 per cent. In the same period, Dublin residential property prices have increased 64.7 per cent whilst residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 44.7 per cent higher. Nonetheless, the national index remains 32.4 per cent lower than its highest level in 2007.
At the start of the new year, the outlook for price growth continues to improve, with prices expected by myhome.ie to grow by at least 8 per cent, with double-digit growth a “distinct possibility”, thanks to the bolstering effect of the already-popular Help to Buy scheme.
Investors fuel Dublin house price growth
18th November 2016
Investors are pushing up Dublin house prices, according to Savills, as new figures reveal that house price growth accelerated this autumn.
The laetst data from CSO shows that property values in the Irish capital rose 5.4 per cent year-on-year in September 2016, more than double the 2.2 per cent rate recorded in September 2015.
Savills attributes the rise in prices to investment activity in the city. According to the firm, there has been a “massive tenure shift” from owner occupation towards renting, with owner-occupiers falling from 69.4 per cent of Dublin households in Q1 2011 to less than 61 per cent in Q2 2016. Conversely, private renters increased from 17 per cent of households to 24.5 per cent. The share of properties being bought by investors, meanwhile, is high, accounting for 29 per cent of the 13,031 properties bought in Dublin over the last 12 months. With rents set to keep climbing, investors are expected to keep looking for buy-to-let opportunities, further fuelling price growth.
According to Daft.ie, Dublin rents are now rising at 12.1 per cent per annum. Prices for apartments, meanwhile, the type that investors target, are rising at 6 per cent year-on-year, faster than houses (5.7 per cent).
Dr. John McCartney, Director of Research at Savills, comments: “The notion that mortgage restrictions could contain house price growth in the long term never made sense. Initially the Central Bank rules prevented some people from buying and caused a temporary slowdown in the market. But the frustrated buyers were simply pushed into renting which has driven up rents. What we are now seeing is a resumption of price growth as investors are being attracted into the market by ever higher rents.”
Irish house price growth picks up pace, as supply shrinks
25th October 2016
House price growth in Ireland is picking up pace this autumn, as the country’s supply of property shrinks.
Figures from the Central Statistics Office show that annual house price growth accerelated from 6.7 per cent in July 2016 to 7.2 per cent in August 2016. It is also significantly higher than the 5.5 per cent year-on-year growth recorded in August 2015.
Dublin has seen property values rise 4.5 per cent in the last year (house prices rose 4.8 per cent and apartment prices climbed 6.4 per cent). Dublin City and Fingal were the joint-highest locations, with prices in both jumping 5.9 per cent. Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw the slowest house price growth, with values up just 1.5 per cent.
While Dublin is enjoying a rebound after several months of declines, though, the Rest of Ireland (excluding Dublin) outpaced the capital with prices up 11.4 per cent in the year to August (house prices increased 11.5 per cent, apartment prices 9.9 per cent).
Overall, the country has seen prices climb 45.6 per cent since the trough following the global financial crisis, with Dublin hvaing recovered 60.9 per cent of their value. The market remains 33.7 per cent below its 2007 peak.
The steady recovery is backed up by figures from Irish portal Daft.ie, which reports the national average asking price for a home in Q3 2016 as €221,000, with prices in Dublin rising 5.3 per cent year-on-year and the rest of the country seeing prices climb 9.3 per cent.
Dublin prices have surged 46.5 per cent since their trough in 2012, with the rest of the country recovering 36 per cent.
Daft.ie also reports that the number of properties for sale nationwide has been “largely stable”, with just under 25,000 homes for sale in September. Compared to a year ago, though, supply is shrinking, with 14 per cent fewer homes available to buy.
Ronan Lyons, economist at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft.ie Report says: “The latest figures are a cause for concern. There were price increases throughout the summer in all 54 markets covered in the report, only the second time this has occurred since prices bottomed out. Increases occurred throughout Dublin, which had seen almost two years of price stability following the Central Bank rules. This suggests that, while there is little risk of a credit-fuelled bubble, the underlying lack of supply is severely affecting the market.”
Dublin prices bounce back
1st June 2016
Dublin prices have begun to bounce back, following several months of declines.
The city saw property prices increase in April 2016 for the first time in five months. Prices rose 1.6 per cent month-on-month, according to the Central Statistics Office, taking prices to 4.6 per cent above April a year ago.
House prices, in particular, increased 1.9 per cent over the month and were 5 per cent higher compared to April 2015, while apartment prices were 1.1 per cent up year-on-year.
Dublin led a general rise in property values across Ireland, with the national average increasing 7.1 per cent annually. This was lower than March’s 7.4 per cent and April 2015’s 15.8 per cent, but on a monthly basis, April outperformed March, with prices up 0.3 per cent, compared to no change in the previous month.
Excluding Dublin, properties in the Rest of Ireland declined 0.6 per cent in April, but are 9.5 per cent higher than in April 2015.
The latest rise is attributed to a shortage of properties to buy, as demand from buyers puts pressure on available stock levels.
Dublin house prices dip for fourth month in a row
8th April 2016
Dublin house prices dipped for the fourth month in a row in February 2016. House prices in the city slipped 0.3 per cent from January 2016, although values remain 4 per cent higher than February 2015. Indeed, overall residential prices dipped 0.1 per cent month-on-month, with values still 4 per cent higher than a year ago. Apartment prices in Dublin, in particular, enjoyed strong growth of 4.3 per cent year-on-year.
The figures mark a continued downturn for the city’s housing market, after a period of Dublin outpacing national price growth. Indeed, as people move out of the capital to more affordable surrounding areas, pressure is being placed upon the rest of the country’s housing supply instead: residential property prices at a national level rose 8 per cent year-on-year in February 2016, up from a rise of 7.6 per cnet in January 2016, while prices across ireland excluding Dublin climbed 11.5 per cent year-on-year – the strongest growth recorded since 2007.
Nonetheless, the market is showing signs of cooling, with prices staying flat month-on-month in February, with its annual growth also below the 14.9 per cent recorded in the 12 months to February 2015.
As the market stands now, house prices in Dublin are 35.1 per cent below their 2007 peak, while apartment prices in Dublin are 40.9 per cent below their peak. Overall, the recovery outside of Dublin means that the national index is performing slightly better than the capital city, with values 33.8 per cent lower than in 2007.Google+