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World tourism forecast

Friday, July 03, 2009

Catherine Deshayes

The latest edition of the World Tourism Barometer has revealed that international tourism will decrease between four and six per cent this year in response to the economic downturn and concerns about swine flu - with Europe posting the biggest decline - a fall of ten per cent between January and April this year...

The United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has said that global tourism in 2009 will fall sharply.

International tourism was found to have slumped by eight per cent between January and April compared to the same period last year.

All over the world, countries recorded a total of 247 million international tourist arrivals in the four months, down from 269 million in 2008.

These figures have led the World Tourism Organisation to revise its forecast for 2009, taking into account the bleak economic outlook and the threat of swine flu.

International tourism is now forecast to decline by between -6 per cent and -4 per cent in 2009 as the pace of decline is expected to ease during the remainder of 2009, according to the UNWTO. In January it had predicted a decline of between zero and two per cent.

"The negative trend in international tourism that emerged during the second half of 2008 intensified in 2009," the organisation said.

"In view of the rapidly deteriorating global economic situation, economic growth prospects have repeatedly been adjusted downwards over the past six months."

"There is additional uncertainty regarding the future of the influenza A(H1N1) virus (that's swine flu to you and me) and its effect on demand in the short to medium term," added the UNWTO.

Whilst Europe posted a decline of ten per cent between January and April this year, Asia and the Pacific region saw a decline of six per cent.

Going against the grain was Africa and South America, which both posted increases of three per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively

The research also revealed that France remained the world's top tourism destination last year with 79 million arrivals. The United States regained the second-place position which it lost to Spain after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Picture by Wolfgang Staudt