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Interest rate expectations shift

UK workers are feeling more secure about their own jobs than at any time in the last six months, according to the January Consumer Barometer from Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.

Some 23% of employees reported feeling more secure about their jobs, with a further 52% believing job security had remained constant.

The barometer also looked at consumers' interest rate expectations. In a climate of increasing pessimism over rising fuel prices, the majority of consumers still expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months, but the proportion fell back from December.

The balance of consumers that believe rates will be higher rather than lower fell to 43% from 50% last month. However, an overwhelming 81% of respondents still anticipate rates rising or staying the same – compared with just 14% that believe the MPC will vote for a rate cut this year.

Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets, said: "The MPC is unlikely to cut rates in the short term with house price inflation set to rise further in the coming months."

"The strengthening in retail sales, services and manufacturing will also continue to discourage a cut and, crucially, inflation remains on target at 2%."

"Couple this with the fact that economic growth is rising at 2.4% per annum (based on the 0.6% rise in Q4) and you can only assume that the MPC will not be keen to change things – unless, of course, something fairly dramatic happens over the coming months."