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Are Buyers Taking A Summer Break?     SiteFeatures: Special features: Vendor's Viewpoint no.7


Are buyers taking a summer break?
Friday 2nd March

Every three months, Bradford & Bingley Estate Agents compile their Home Report, a comprehensive analysis of property market activity, that looks at some of the behavioural trends that aren't really covered by the house price research released by other organisations. For the second time, we have taken our own look at the report and present to you our own view of the lessons that can be learned from it.

National v local

Much of the time, only national trends get reported, which can sometimes leave the home buyer or seller with the wrong conclusions. One of the features that comes across from the report is that many of the behavioural phenomenon are subject to strong local and regional differences, often with very differing patterns to other areas of the country. Bare in mind then, that you should never take top level 'national average' statistics for granted. If you can, always dig down and examine things on the micro level as well, to find out how the area you are looking at fits in with the bigger picture.

Ratio of buyers to properties for sale

Despite the late spring and early summer being traditionally popular times for house hunting, the last three months have seen a decline in the overall average number of buyers in the market per property.

 
June 2000
Oct 2000
Feb 2001
June 2001
Scotland
3:1
10:1
8:1
4:1
North
3:1
5:1
4:1
4:1
West
3:1
3:1
5:1
3:1
East
6:1
6:1
8:1
8:1
S. East
12:1
8:1
11:1
13:1
S. West
8:1
6:1
8:1
7:1
National
6:1
6:1
8:1
7:1

In fact, this piece of data stands out as being rather odd, especially given the record breaking number and value of mortgages that have been borrowed over the last couple of months. Perhaps the wider uncertainties in the economy have put paid to some of the more speculative house hunters who go and view properties without having concrete plans to move.

The Home Report has cited recent hot spells and the popularity of end of season football matches as being two reasons for buyers putting off the hunt for their dream properties. However, this summer has not been particularly hot so far, and every football fan will tell you that all matches are important be they at the start, middle or end of the season, so this seems an unlikely driver for decreased buyer numbers.

Drilling down, the falling number of buyers has affected all areas apart from the South East, where the average number of buyers per property has risen to 13. There are particularly high numbers of buyers in the market for entry level homes (19 per property valued at £50 - £100,000) though there are a strong numbers at all price points above £50,000. Obviously few people give themselves much hope of finding anything in the South East for less than that amount!

 
To 50k
50-100k
100-150k
150-200k
200-250k
250-300k
300k+
Scotland
2:1
4:1
8:1
8:1
9:1
7:1
10:1
North
2:1
4:1
5:1
7:1
8:1
10:1
4:1
West
2:1
4:1
4:1
4:1
6:1
6:1
5:1
East
5:1
7:1
7:1
8:1
9:1
11:1
16:1
S. East
6:1
19:1
14:1
13:1
12:1
15:1
11:1
S. West
11:1
7:1
6:1
8:1
8:1
9:1
7:1
National
3:1
6:1
7:1
8:1
11:1
10:1
10:1

Other areas are not so uniform in the patterns they are displaying. There has been a sharp decrease in the number of buyers chasing high value homes in Scotland, with 50 percent fewer buyers in the market for homes worth £250-£300K. There has been a similar decline at that price point in the West with the average number of buyers falling from 10 to 6, while in the North, this has become the most sought after house value, with an average of ten buyers per property.

According to almost all barometers of the market, the East of England has been enjoying substantial price gains for the last year or so. Although it is experiencing a large number of buyers across all price ranges, there are a staggering 16 per property priced over £300,000 - a fact which highlights the regions newfound pre-eminence as the favoured area of city executives.

Number of viewings before sale agreed

 
Detached
Semi
Terraced
Flat
Bungalow
Scotland
14
12
10
12
15
North
11
7
8
13
11
West
10
8
7
8
11
East
9
9
9
8
11
S. East
12
13
11
10
10
S. West
9
10
10
9
10
National
10
10
9
10
8

Length of time taken to sell

 
Detached
Semi
Terraced
Flat
Bungalow
Scotland
6 wks
6 wks
6 wks
8 wks
7 wks
North
16 wks
8 wks
12 wks
12 wks
12 wks
West
15 wks
11 wks
12 wks
10 wks
21 wks
East
12 wks
9 wks
9 wks
9 wks
13 wks
S. East
11 wks
11 wks
9 wks
9 wks
13 wks
S. West
14 wks
10 wks
9 wks
10 wks
11 wks
National
12 wks
10 wks
10 wks
9 wks
13 wks

Vendors are having to wait longer than ever to sell their homes, with a corresponding increase in the number of viewings before buyers reach their decision. The report puts this down to the voyeurism factor, arguing that the current interest in other people's lives, shown by the growth of reality TV shows like Big Brother, may be contributing to an increase of nine percent in the number of viewings since February this year.

However, we do not think that this is all that likely. We have already seen that the number of buyers in the market has declined, yet mortgage completions remain at record levels. This suggests that there are fewer non-serious buyers rather than more - perhaps the voyeurs are too busy watching the new series.

It seems much more likely that this phenomenon is an escalation of the trend we reported last quarter - that of buyers becoming increasingly cautious and determined to get what they want rather than being driven by market frenzy into panic buying a property that they are not entirely satisfied with.

Areas that buck the trend
Once again, there is stark evidence of large regional differences, with localised pockets that buck the national trend. All the regions have hotspots where houses are selling in three weeks and under.

Aside from the quality of local schooling, the range of local amenities, the selection and range of available properties, ease of access to transport links and proximity to employment centres, the only new cited factor that contributes to a location being a hotspot is "visually appealing towns or villages.

At the other end of the scale, it may be worth Badford and Bingley taking a look at what causes a location and property type to become an icy cold spot. The average time to find a buyer for a detatched property in the North is now nearly 4 months, though this is nothing compared to the West, where it is likely to take you more than 5 months to sell a bungalow. Some analysis of why these phenomenon are occurring may prove useful.

Singles and first timers

In line with findings reported by other economic think tanks, this study is showing that an increasing number of people are displaying what is becoming known as "The Bridget Jones singleton factor" - in other words, more and more people are choosing to buy on their own. This is most prevalent in the West of the country where some four in ten buyers are single people. Scotland has the highest number of people buying with a partner.

The number of people buying on their own doesn't relate closely to prices though, meaning that some people must be stretching themselves financially. In the South East, a third of all buyers act on their own and yet the average price for first timers is £131,139. On the other hand, some people elsewhere make life much easier for themselves: Three quarters of buyers in Scotland act with their partner, yet the average price for first time buyers is just £44,290.

Percentage of asking price achieved

The proportion of the asking price that vendors are now achieving has risen by an average of 1 percent, depending on the region. We would tend to agree with the report that this means sellers are pricing their homes more realistically and buyers are now agreeing to pay these prices.

 
Sep 2000
Feb 2001
June 2001
Scotland
105 %
104%
108%
North
96 %
96%
96%
West
96 %
96%
96%
East
97 %
96%
97%
S. East
97 %
95%
96%
S. West
96 %
96%
97%
National
97 %
96%
97%

Conclusions

Ian Davies, regional business said: "The paradox in the housing market is that there is a shortage of property coming on to the market. Although there is movement in house prices, this shortage is not driving up prices as quickly as we have seen in the past."

Although some recent reports have outlined the possibility of a major correction in the South East property market (based largely on affordability measures) this set of data makes that look unlikely. In fact, it almost seems to suggest that the market could be set for another mini explosion. Look at the evidence:

  • Interest rates are now at their lowest level for a long time, making mortgages more affordable than ever.
  • Buyers have started to take much longer to decide on the right property.
  • It is the only region in the UK to have more buyers in the market than 3 months ago, with an average of 13 per property.
  • Some agents are already talking about a lack of new instructions.

This clearly suggests that there is huge potential for a bottleneck, with an increasing number of buyers stalking a decreasing number of properties. As far as prices are concerned, this would mean that the only way is up.

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